Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alfreton Town win with a probability of 48.56%. A win for Curzon Ashton had a probability of 26.01% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alfreton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.36%) and 2-0 (8.82%). The likeliest Curzon Ashton win was 0-1 (7.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.09%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Alfreton Town would win this match.
