We said: Manchester City 2-0 Chelsea
Even if Man City are unable to recover some of their unnamed players from COVID-19 infection, Guardiola's side are refreshed, a force to be reckoned with at home and need no added incentive to all but extinguish the Blues' title hopes.
Chelsea ought to be buoyed by two professional performances against Tottenham, but Man City away is a whole different kettle of fish, and we expect fatigue to work against the Blues as the champions extend their lead at the top.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 56.01%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Chelsea had a probability of 21.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.66%) and 2-0 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.49%), while for a Chelsea win it was 1-2 (5.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
