SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 79.73%. A draw had a probability of 12.3% and a win for Leicester City had a probability of 7.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 3-0 with a probability of 9.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.08%) and 3-1 (8.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.39%), while for a Leicester City win it was 1-2 (2.42%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester City | Draw | Leicester City |
79.73% ( 0.05) | 12.33% ( -0.02) | 7.94% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 56.32% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 74.96% ( 0.06) | 25.04% ( -0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 55.03% ( 0.07) | 44.97% ( -0.07) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 95.13% ( 0.02) | 4.88% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 80.4% ( 0.05) | 19.6% ( -0.05) |
| Leicester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.2% ( 0) | 40.8% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.62% | 77.38% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester City | Draw | Leicester City |
| 3-0 @ 9.14% 2-0 @ 9.08% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 8.19% 2-1 @ 8.14% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 6.9% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 6.19% ( 0.01)1-0 @ 6.01% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 4.17% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 3.74% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.67% 4-2 @ 2.77% ( 0)6-0 @ 2.1% ( 0.01)6-1 @ 1.88% ( 0.01)5-2 @ 1.68% ( 0)7-0 @ 0.91% ( 0)Other @ 5.16% Total : 79.73% | 1-1 @ 5.39% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 3.65% ( -0)0-0 @ 1.99% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.1% Other @ 0.21% Total : 12.33% | 1-2 @ 2.42% ( -0) 0-1 @ 1.78% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.09% ( -0)Other @ 2.66% Total : 7.95% |
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