Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Krylia Sovetov win with a probability of 62.65%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Arsenal Tula had a probability of 15.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Krylia Sovetov win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.27%) and 2-1 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.41%), while for an Arsenal Tula win it was 0-1 (5.63%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood.
