Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kilmarnock win with a probability of 61.74%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Arbroath had a probability of 14.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kilmarnock win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.05%) and 2-1 (9.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.73%), while for an Arbroath win it was 0-1 (6.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Kilmarnock would win this match.
