Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mirandes win with a probability of 38.85%. A win for Ponferradina had a probability of 32.64% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mirandes win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.95%) and 2-0 (7.41%). The likeliest Ponferradina win was 0-1 (11.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.26%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mirandes would win this match.
