Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Gijon win with a probability of 42.17%. A win for Cartagena had a probability of 29.48% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Gijon win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.27%) and 2-0 (8.26%). The likeliest Cartagena win was 0-1 (10.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.15%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sporting Gijon would win this match.
