Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cartagena win with a probability of 41.07%. A win for Real Zaragoza had a probability of 31.47% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cartagena win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.44%) and 2-0 (7.65%). The likeliest Real Zaragoza win was 0-1 (9.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.96%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cartagena would win this match.
