Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Gallen win with a probability of 49.01%. A win for Luzern had a probability of 28.77% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Gallen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.8%) and 2-0 (6.5%). The likeliest Luzern win was 1-2 (6.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.69%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Gallen would win this match.