World Cup Qualifying - Asia | Third Round

Oct 10, 2024 at 3pm UK

Milliy Stadion

Uzbekistan
vs.
Iran

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - Asia clash between Uzbekistan and Iran, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Uzbekistan

All competitions

Last Game: Kyrgyzstan 2-3 Uzbekistan
Tuesday, September 10 at 3pm in World Cup Qualifying - Asia

Next Game: Uzbekistan vs. UAE
Tuesday, October 15 at 3pm in World Cup Qualifying - Asia

Current Third Round Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Uzbekistan	0	0	0
2	Iran	0	0	0
3	Qatar	0	0	0
4	North Korea	0	0	0
5	Kyrgyzstan	0	0	0
6	United Arab Emirates	0	0	0

Iran

All competitions

Last Game: UAE 0-1 Iran
Tuesday, September 10 at 5pm in World Cup Qualifying - Asia

Next Game: Iran vs. Qatar
Tuesday, October 15 at 5pm in World Cup Qualifying - Asia

Current Third Round Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Uzbekistan	0	0	0
2	Iran	0	0	0
3	Qatar	0	0	0
4	North Korea	0	0	0
5	Kyrgyzstan	0	0	0
6	United Arab Emirates	0	0	0

Drawing each of their last two competitive meetings, we are expecting a hard-fought affair between the Group A pacesetters in Tashkent on Thursday night. Iran's record since the arrival of head coach Ghalenoei in March 2023 has been exceptional, and we envisage Team Melli earning a narrow victory in Uzbekistan to leapfrog the hosts in the section standings. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iran win with a probability of 37.86%. A win for Uzbekistan had a probability of 33.32% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Iran win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.76%) and 0-2 (7.23%). The likeliest Uzbekistan win was 1-0 (11.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.33%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood.

Result
Uzbekistan	Draw	Iran
33.32% ( 2.64)	28.82% ( -0.09)	37.86% ( -2.55)

Both teams to score 45.21% (

0.91)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

38.66% (

0.81)

61.33% (

-0.81)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

18.75% (

0.6)

81.24% (

-0.6)

Uzbekistan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.77% (

2.36)

34.23% (

-2.36)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.07% (

2.45)

70.92% (

-2.45)

Iran Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.74% (

-1.12)

31.26% (

1.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.39% (

-1.33)

67.61% (

1.32)

Score Analysis

Uzbekistan 33.32%

Iran 37.86%

Draw 28.8%

Uzbekistan	Draw	Iran
1-0 @ 11.47% ( 0.39) 2-1 @ 7.15% ( 0.47) 2-0 @ 6.15% ( 0.58) 3-1 @ 2.56% ( 0.32) 3-0 @ 2.2% ( 0.33) 3-2 @ 1.49% ( 0.14) Other @ 2.31% Total : 33.32%	1-1 @ 13.33% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 10.69% ( -0.33) 2-2 @ 4.16% ( 0.15) Other @ 0.62% Total : 28.8%	0-1 @ 12.44% ( -0.78) 1-2 @ 7.76% ( -0.22) 0-2 @ 7.23% ( -0.7) 1-3 @ 3.01% ( -0.18) 0-3 @ 2.8% ( -0.37) 2-3 @ 1.61% ( 0.01) Other @ 3% Total : 37.86%