Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colon win with a probability of 42.88%. A win for Velez Sarsfield had a probability of 29.62% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colon win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.57%) and 2-0 (8.15%). The likeliest Velez Sarsfield win was 0-1 (9.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.
