Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estudiantes win with a probability of 48.49%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Velez Sarsfield had a probability of 25.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estudiantes win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.23%) and 2-0 (9.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.31%), while for a Velez Sarsfield win it was 0-1 (8.21%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Estudiantes would win this match.
