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Bundesliga | Gameweek 4
Sep 16, 2023 at 2.30pm UK
Mewa Arena
S

Mainz
1 - 3
Stuttgart

Barreiro (69')
Caci (11')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Guirassy (56', 84', 90+7')
Stiller (60'), Anton (67')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Werder Bremen 4-0 Mainz
Saturday, September 2 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Stuttgart 5-0 Freiburg
Saturday, September 2 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Mainz 05 1-2 Stuttgart

Stuttgart have put together a fine run of form in recent weeks and head into the weekend with six wins in their last seven matches across all competitions. Hoeness's men take on a floundering Mainz side who have struggled for results this season and we fancy them to extend their dominance in this fixture. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stuttgart win with a probability of 42.53%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 32.43% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Stuttgart win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.96%) and 0-2 (6.92%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-0 (7.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Stuttgart would win this match.

Result
Mainz 05DrawStuttgart
32.43% (0.021000000000001 0.02) 25.04% (-0.0040000000000013 -0) 42.53% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
Both teams to score 56.69% (0.029000000000003 0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.36% (0.033000000000001 0.03)46.64% (-0.030999999999999 -0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.09% (0.032 0.03)68.91% (-0.029999999999987 -0.03)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.6% (0.030000000000001 0.03)27.4% (-0.029 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.13% (0.036999999999999 0.04)62.87% (-0.036000000000001 -0.04)
Stuttgart Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.09% (0.0069999999999908 0.01)21.91% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.82% (0.009999999999998 0.01)55.18% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Mainz 05 32.43%
    Stuttgart 42.53%
    Draw 25.04%
Mainz 05DrawStuttgart
1-0 @ 7.77% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
2-1 @ 7.64% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-0 @ 5.03% (0.00099999999999945 0)
3-1 @ 3.3% (0.004 0)
3-2 @ 2.5% (0.0039999999999996 0)
3-0 @ 2.17% (0.0019999999999998 0)
4-1 @ 1.07% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.95%
Total : 32.43%
1-1 @ 11.8%
0-0 @ 6% (-0.008 -0.01)
2-2 @ 5.8% (0.0040000000000004 0)
3-3 @ 1.27% (0.002 0)
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 25.04%
0-1 @ 9.12% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-2 @ 8.96% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
0-2 @ 6.92% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
1-3 @ 4.53% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-3 @ 3.5% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-3 @ 2.93% (0.0020000000000002 0)
1-4 @ 1.72%
0-4 @ 1.33% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
2-4 @ 1.11% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.41%
Total : 42.53%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Werder Bremen 4-0 Mainz
Saturday, September 2 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Mainz 1-1 Frankfurt
Sunday, August 27 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Union Berlin 4-1 Mainz
Sunday, August 20 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Elversberg 0-1 Mainz
Saturday, August 12 at 5pm in DFB-Pokal
Last Game: Mainz 1-0 Burnley
Saturday, August 5 at 2.30pm in Club Friendlies 1
Last Game: Dortmund 2-2 Mainz
Saturday, May 27 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Stuttgart 5-0 Freiburg
Saturday, September 2 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: RB Leipzig 5-1 Stuttgart
Friday, August 25 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Stuttgart 5-0 VfL Bochum
Saturday, August 19 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Balingen 0-4 Stuttgart
Saturday, August 12 at 12pm in DFB-Pokal
Last Game: Sheff Utd 0-3 Stuttgart
Saturday, August 5 at 12.45pm in Club Friendlies 1
Last Game: Hamburger SV 1-3 Stuttgart
Monday, June 5 at 7.45pm in Bundesliga Relegation Playoffs


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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