Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estudiantes win with a probability of 50.58%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 25.62% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estudiantes win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.64%) and 2-0 (8.33%). The likeliest Nacional win was 0-1 (6.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Estudiantes in this match.
