Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo Wanderers win with a probability of 39.26%. A win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 35.41% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo Wanderers win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.58%) and 0-2 (6.36%). The likeliest Cerro Largo win was 1-0 (8.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.96%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Montevideo Wanderers in this match.
