Although Lyon currently have a one-goal advantage, there is still plenty to play for and an entertaining contest could be on the cards on Thursday night. The hosts have struggled on home soil in the last few weeks and they will find it challenging to keep a clean sheet against a fired-up Porto outfit. However, Bosz's men also possess quality in the final third and we can see them playing out at least a draw, which would be enough to edge them through to the quarter-finals on aggregate. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 54.21%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Lyon had a probability of 21.13%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.39%) and 1-2 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.68%), while for a Lyon win it was 1-0 (7.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Lyon	Draw	Porto
21.13%	24.66%	54.21%

Both teams to score 48.39%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.99%

53.01%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.4%

74.6%

Lyon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.11%

39.89%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.44%

76.56%

Porto Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.5%

19.5%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.63%

51.37%

Score Analysis

Lyon 21.13%

Porto 54.2%

Draw 24.65%

Lyon	Draw	Porto
1-0 @ 7.15% 2-1 @ 5.37% 2-0 @ 3.28% 3-1 @ 1.65% 3-2 @ 1.34% 3-0 @ 1.01% Other @ 1.34% Total : 21.13%	1-1 @ 11.68% 0-0 @ 7.78% 2-2 @ 4.39% Other @ 0.81% Total : 24.65%	0-1 @ 12.71% 0-2 @ 10.39% 1-2 @ 9.55% 0-3 @ 5.67% 1-3 @ 5.21% 2-3 @ 2.39% 0-4 @ 2.32% 1-4 @ 2.13% 2-4 @ 0.98% Other @ 2.86% Total : 54.2%