Lyon have had two extra days preparation for Wednesday's first leg, but we expect a closely-fought contest to be played out between two of the favourites to go all the way in this year's competition. The two teams have an eye for goal and we can see the net rippling at both ends of the pitch, but will little to separate them, an entertaining score draw could be on the cards in Portugal. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 58.39%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Lyon had a probability of 17.97%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.49%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.15%), while for a Lyon win it was 0-1 (6.49%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.

Result
Porto	Draw	Lyon
58.39%	23.63%	17.97%

Both teams to score 46.45%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47%

52.99%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.4%

74.59%

Porto Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.08%

17.91%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.28%

48.71%

Lyon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

56.59%

43.4%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

20.37%

79.63%

Score Analysis

Porto 58.38%

Lyon 17.97%

Draw 23.63%

Porto	Draw	Lyon
1-0 @ 13.37% 2-0 @ 11.49% 2-1 @ 9.6% 3-0 @ 6.59% 3-1 @ 5.5% 4-0 @ 2.83% 4-1 @ 2.37% 3-2 @ 2.3% 4-2 @ 0.99% 5-0 @ 0.98% Other @ 2.38% Total : 58.38%	1-1 @ 11.15% 0-0 @ 7.77% 2-2 @ 4% Other @ 0.7% Total : 23.63%	0-1 @ 6.49% 1-2 @ 4.66% 0-2 @ 2.71% 1-3 @ 1.3% 2-3 @ 1.11% Other @ 1.71% Total : 17.97%