Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 40.37%. A win for Spartak Moscow had a probability of 35.91% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.1%) and 0-2 (5.73%). The likeliest Spartak Moscow win was 2-1 (8.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.72%).
