Fortuna Sittard's 2022-23 campaign has been very solid, but they have a terrible record against Ajax, having never won a competitive game at the Johan Cruijff ArenA.
Given the disparity between the two sides in the league table, that record is unlikely to change on Sunday, and it should be a comfortable victory for Heitinga's side.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 78.77%. A draw had a probability of 12.6% and a win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 8.64%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 3-0 with a probability of 8.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.4%) and 3-1 (8.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.32%), while for a Fortuna Sittard win it was 1-2 (2.57%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
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