SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 68.6%. A draw had a probability of 18.1% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 13.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.72%) and 0-1 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.51%), while for an Arouca win it was 2-1 (3.82%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
13.25% ( 0.08) | 18.15% ( 0.06) | 68.6% ( -0.14) |
| Both teams to score 53.2% ( 0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.63% ( -0.07) | 38.37% ( 0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.34% ( -0.08) | 60.65% ( 0.08) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.22% ( 0.08) | 40.78% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.64% ( 0.07) | 77.35% ( -0.07) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.82% ( -0.06) | 10.18% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 66.56% ( -0.13) | 33.43% ( 0.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arouca | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 2-1 @ 3.82% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 3.72% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 1.67% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.3% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 1.14% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.6% Total : 13.25% | 1-1 @ 8.51% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 4.36% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 4.15% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 0.99% ( 0)Other @ 0.14% Total : 18.15% | 0-2 @ 10.83% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 9.72% ( 0.01)0-1 @ 9.48% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 8.25% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 7.4% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 4.71% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 4.23% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 3.32% ( 0)0-5 @ 2.15% ( -0.02)1-5 @ 1.93% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.9% ( -0)Other @ 4.67% Total : 68.6% |
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