With seven home wins in a row and having kept five clean sheets in that time, it is difficult to back against O Flu taking a first-leg lead here. Internacional have failed to win any of their last six games on the road, and we feel they will see that record extended to seven in this one.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 61.08%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Internacional had a probability of 15.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.36%) and 2-1 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.78%), while for a Internacional win it was 0-1 (6.12%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood.
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