Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 39.36%. A win for Gremio had a probability of 33.33% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.3%) and 0-2 (7.17%). The likeliest Gremio win was 1-0 (10.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.
-0.02) 
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