SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 40.3%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 35.32% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.88%) and 0-2 (6.08%). The likeliest Lugano win was 2-1 (8.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Basel would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lugano | Draw | Basel |
35.32% ( -0.04) | 24.37% ( 0) | 40.3% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 59.85% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.12% ( -0.01) | 42.87% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.72% ( -0.01) | 65.27% ( 0.01) |
| Lugano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.1% ( -0.03) | 23.9% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.89% ( -0.04) | 58.11% ( 0.04) |
| Basel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.65% ( 0.01) | 21.35% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.68% ( 0.02) | 54.32% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lugano | Draw | Basel |
| 2-1 @ 8.07% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 7.3% ( -0)2-0 @ 5.23% ( -0)3-1 @ 3.85% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.97% ( -0)3-0 @ 2.49% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.38% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.06% ( -0)Other @ 2.96% Total : 35.32% | 1-1 @ 11.27% 2-2 @ 6.23% ( -0)0-0 @ 5.1% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.53% ( -0)Other @ 0.23% Total : 24.37% | 1-2 @ 8.71% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 7.88% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 6.08% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 4.48% ( 0)2-3 @ 3.21% 0-3 @ 3.13% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.73% ( 0)2-4 @ 1.24% ( 0)0-4 @ 1.21% ( 0)Other @ 2.64% Total : 40.3% |
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