SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 40.78%. A win for Freiburg had a probability of 33.19% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.69%) and 2-0 (7%). The likeliest Freiburg win was 0-1 (8.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.37%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Mainz 05 | Draw | Freiburg |
40.78% ( 4.99) | 26.03% ( 1) | 33.19% ( -5.98) |
| Both teams to score 53.62% ( -3.92) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.27% ( -4.83) | 50.72% ( 4.83) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.37% ( -4.42) | 72.62% ( 4.42) |
| Mainz 05 Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.44% ( 0.48) | 24.56% ( -0.48) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.96% ( 0.67) | 59.04% ( -0.67) |
| Freiburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.08% ( -5.69) | 28.92% ( 5.69) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.2% ( -7.66) | 64.8% ( 7.66) |
| Score Analysis |
| Mainz 05 | Draw | Freiburg |
| 1-0 @ 9.97% ( 1.92) 2-1 @ 8.69% ( 0.55)2-0 @ 7% ( 1.43)3-1 @ 4.07% ( 0.31)3-0 @ 3.28% ( 0.7)3-2 @ 2.52% ( -0.22)4-1 @ 1.43% ( 0.13)4-0 @ 1.15% ( 0.26)Other @ 2.68% Total : 40.78% | 1-1 @ 12.37% ( 0.62) 0-0 @ 7.1% ( 1.29)2-2 @ 5.39% ( -0.55)3-3 @ 1.04% ( -0.29)Other @ 0.12% Total : 26.03% | 0-1 @ 8.81% ( 0.32) 1-2 @ 7.68% ( -0.91)0-2 @ 5.47% ( -0.73)1-3 @ 3.17% ( -1)0-3 @ 2.26% ( -0.76)2-3 @ 2.23% ( -0.66)1-4 @ 0.99% ( -0.54)Other @ 2.59% Total : 33.19% |
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