SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 39.98%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 35.79% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.65%) and 0-2 (5.94%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 2-1 (8.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.15%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Mainz 05 | Draw | RB Leipzig |
35.79% ( 0.14) | 24.22% ( 0.03) | 39.98% ( -0.17) |
| Both teams to score 60.47% ( -0.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.9% ( -0.15) | 42.1% ( 0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.5% ( -0.15) | 64.5% ( 0.14) |
| Mainz 05 Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.71% ( 0) | 23.29% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.77% ( 0.01) | 57.22% ( -0.02) |
| RB Leipzig Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.83% ( -0.15) | 21.17% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.96% ( -0.23) | 54.03% ( 0.22) |
| Score Analysis |
| Mainz 05 | Draw | RB Leipzig |
| 2-1 @ 8.13% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 7.18% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 5.23% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 3.95% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.07% ( -0)3-0 @ 2.54% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.44% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.12% ( -0)4-0 @ 0.93% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.21% Total : 35.79% | 1-1 @ 11.15% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 6.31% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 4.93% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 1.59% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.25% Total : 24.22% | 1-2 @ 8.66% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 7.65% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 5.94% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 4.48% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 3.27% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 3.08% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.74% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.27% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.19% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.7% Total : 39.98% |
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