SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 53.72%. A win for Arsenal had a probability of 25.14% and a draw had a probability of 21.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.85%) and 1-0 (6.6%). The likeliest Arsenal win was 1-2 (6.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.05%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester City | Draw | Arsenal |
53.72% ( -1.22) | 21.14% ( 0.56) | 25.14% ( 0.66) |
| Both teams to score 65.3% ( -1.34) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.97% ( -2.06) | 33.02% ( 2.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 45.25% ( -2.4) | 54.75% ( 2.4) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.47% ( -1.03) | 12.53% ( 1.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.44% ( -2.17) | 38.55% ( 2.17) |
| Arsenal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.65% ( -0.65) | 25.34% ( 0.65) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.87% ( -0.91) | 60.13% ( 0.91) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester City | Draw | Arsenal |
| 2-1 @ 9.4% ( 0.11) 2-0 @ 6.85% ( 0.21)1-0 @ 6.6% ( 0.45)3-1 @ 6.51% ( -0.19)3-0 @ 4.74% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 4.47% ( -0.22)4-1 @ 3.38% ( -0.24)4-0 @ 2.46% ( -0.13)4-2 @ 2.32% ( -0.21)5-1 @ 1.4% ( -0.16)4-3 @ 1.06% ( -0.12)5-0 @ 1.02% ( -0.1)5-2 @ 0.96% ( -0.13)Other @ 2.54% Total : 53.72% | 1-1 @ 9.05% ( 0.46) 2-2 @ 6.45% ( -0.04)0-0 @ 3.18% ( 0.34)3-3 @ 2.05% ( -0.14)Other @ 0.41% Total : 21.14% | 1-2 @ 6.21% ( 0.2) 0-1 @ 4.36% ( 0.39)0-2 @ 2.99% ( 0.21)2-3 @ 2.95% ( -0.08)1-3 @ 2.84% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 1.37% ( 0.07)2-4 @ 1.01% ( -0.05)1-4 @ 0.98% ( -0)Other @ 2.43% Total : 25.14% |
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