Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 36.36%. A win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 34.25% and a draw had a probability of 29.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.42%) and 2-0 (6.98%). The likeliest Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 (12.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Penarol in this match.
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