SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 54.3%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Progreso had a probability of 22.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.77%) and 0-2 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.24%), while for a Progreso win it was 1-0 (6.47%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Progreso | Draw | Nacional |
22.03% ( 0.17) | 23.67% ( 0.05) | 54.3% ( -0.22) |
| Both teams to score 52.56% ( 0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.92% ( -0.01) | 48.07% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.76% ( -0.01) | 70.24% ( 0.01) |
| Progreso Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.79% ( 0.16) | 36.21% ( -0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27% ( 0.16) | 72.99% ( -0.16) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.4% ( -0.09) | 17.6% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.82% ( -0.15) | 48.18% ( 0.14) |
| Score Analysis |
| Progreso | Draw | Nacional |
| 1-0 @ 6.47% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 5.71% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 3.29% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 1.93% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 1.68% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 1.11% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.83% Total : 22.03% | 1-1 @ 11.24% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.37% ( 0)2-2 @ 4.96% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 0.97% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.12% Total : 23.66% | 0-1 @ 11.07% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 9.77% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 9.62% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 5.66% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 5.57% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 2.87% ( 0)1-4 @ 2.46% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 2.42% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.25% ( -0)Other @ 3.62% Total : 54.3% |
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