Uruguay are still having to cope without the services of several key players, and we think that they will have to settle for a draw, especially as Venezuela have avoided defeat in all three of their home matches in 2026 World Cup qualifying.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uruguay win with a probability of 42.01%. A draw had a probability of 31% and a win for Venezuela had a probability of 26.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Uruguay win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.89%) and 1-2 (7.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.44%), while for a Venezuela win it was 1-0 (11.92%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 14.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
0.34) 
-0.65) 
