SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 44.96%. A win for Celta Vigo had a probability of 31.15% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.15%) and 2-0 (6.79%). The likeliest Celta Vigo win was 1-2 (7.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Villarreal | Draw | Celta Vigo |
44.96% ( 0.47) | 23.89% ( -0.24) | 31.15% ( -0.24) |
| Both teams to score 60.12% ( 0.72) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.1% ( 0.99) | 41.9% ( -1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.7% ( 0.99) | 64.3% ( -1) |
| Villarreal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.12% ( 0.6) | 18.87% ( -0.6) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.66% ( 0.99) | 50.34% ( -1) |
| Celta Vigo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.11% ( 0.34) | 25.89% ( -0.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.12% ( 0.46) | 60.87% ( -0.46) |
| Score Analysis |
| Villarreal | Draw | Celta Vigo |
| 2-1 @ 9.18% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 8.15% ( -0.21)2-0 @ 6.79% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 5.1% ( 0.11)3-0 @ 3.78% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 3.45% ( 0.11)4-1 @ 2.13% ( 0.09)4-0 @ 1.57% ( 0.05)4-2 @ 1.44% ( 0.07)Other @ 3.38% Total : 44.96% | 1-1 @ 11% ( -0.18) 2-2 @ 6.2% ( 0.08)0-0 @ 4.89% ( -0.22)3-3 @ 1.55% ( 0.06)Other @ 0.24% Total : 23.88% | 1-2 @ 7.44% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 6.6% ( -0.23)0-2 @ 4.46% ( -0.11)1-3 @ 3.35% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.79% ( 0.06)0-3 @ 2.01% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 1.13% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 0.94% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.41% Total : 31.15% |
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