Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toulouse win with a probability of 40.66%. A win for Auxerre had a probability of 34.12% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toulouse win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.75%) and 0-2 (6.59%). The likeliest Auxerre win was 1-0 (8.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toulouse would win this match.
