Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Liverpool win with a probability of 67.56%. A draw had a probability of 17.1% and a win for Aston Villa had a probability of 15.33%.

The most likely scoreline for a Liverpool win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.91%) and 1-3 (7.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.18%), while for an Aston Villa win it was 2-1 (4.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Liverpool would win this match.