SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 68.03%. A draw had a probability of 17.9% and a win for Leeds United had a probability of 14.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 0-2 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.67%) and 0-1 (8.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.18%), while for a Leeds United win it was 2-1 (4.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Leeds United | Draw | Manchester City |
14.1% ( 0.04) | 17.88% ( -0.09) | 68.03% ( 0.06) |
| Both teams to score 56.77% ( 0.48) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.04% ( 0.56) | 34.96% ( -0.55) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.05% ( 0.62) | 56.95% ( -0.61) |
| Leeds United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.66% ( 0.42) | 37.35% ( -0.42) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.87% ( 0.41) | 74.13% ( -0.41) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.6% ( 0.16) | 9.4% ( -0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 68.37% ( 0.38) | 31.63% ( -0.37) |
| Score Analysis |
| Leeds United | Draw | Manchester City |
| 2-1 @ 4.03% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 3.46% ( -0.06)2-0 @ 1.7% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.56% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 1.32% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.03% Total : 14.1% | 1-1 @ 8.18% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 4.76% ( 0.04)0-0 @ 3.51% ( -0.1)3-3 @ 1.23% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.2% Total : 17.88% | 0-2 @ 9.81% ( -0.14) 1-2 @ 9.67% ( -0.02)0-1 @ 8.3% ( -0.17)0-3 @ 7.73% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 7.62% ( 0.04)0-4 @ 4.57% ( 0)1-4 @ 4.5% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 3.75% ( 0.06)2-4 @ 2.22% ( 0.05)0-5 @ 2.16% ( 0.02)1-5 @ 2.13% ( 0.04)2-5 @ 1.05% ( 0.03)Other @ 4.51% Total : 68.03% |
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