Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kilmarnock win with a probability of 55.85%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Ayr United had a probability of 17.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kilmarnock win was 0-1 with a probability of 17.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.48%) and 1-2 (8.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.7%), while for an Ayr United win it was 1-0 (8.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Kilmarnock would win this match.
