Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Queen of the South win with a probability of 46.48%. A win for Ayr United had a probability of 27.11% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Queen of the South win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.06%) and 2-0 (8.71%). The likeliest Ayr United win was 0-1 (8.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.
