Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Amorebieta win with a probability of 36.99%. A win for UD Ibiza had a probability of 35.49% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Amorebieta win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.98%) and 2-0 (6.68%). The likeliest UD Ibiza win was 0-1 (10.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.01%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Amorebieta would win this match.
