Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malaga win with a probability of 37.87%. A win for Amorebieta had a probability of 33.49% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malaga win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.81%) and 0-2 (7.19%). The likeliest Amorebieta win was 1-0 (11.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.3%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Malaga would win this match.
