Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Honka win with a probability of 40.51%. A win for SJK had a probability of 31.79% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Honka win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.33%) and 2-0 (7.59%). The likeliest SJK win was 0-1 (10.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Honka would win this match.
