Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macarthur win with a probability of 40.66%. A win for Perth Glory had a probability of 34.4% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Macarthur win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.64%) and 2-0 (6.46%). The likeliest Perth Glory win was 1-2 (7.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.71%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Macarthur would win this match.
