Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colon win with a probability of 40.2%. A win for Cerro Porteno had a probability of 34.89% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colon win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.5%) and 0-2 (6.34%). The likeliest Cerro Porteno win was 2-1 (8.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.67%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood.
