Copa Libertadores | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg
Aug 4, 2022 at 1.30am UK
Estadio José Amalfitani
We said: Velez Sarsfield 2-1 Talleres
Neither side boast defensive security as one of their strengths, and they have both been leaking goals of late, but Velez pose the more potent attacking threat. With several experienced options in the final third, the hosts should take a lead to Cordoba next week.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 50.22%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Talleres had a probability of 23.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.13%) and 2-1 (9.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.42%), while for a Talleres win it was 0-1 (8.57%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Velez Sarsfield would win this match.
| Result |
| Velez Sarsfield | Draw | Talleres |
50.22% ( 0.03) | 26.7% ( -0) | 23.08% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 45.07% ( -0.02) |
| 41.42% ( -0.01) | 58.58% ( 0.01) |
| 20.86% ( -0.01) | 79.14% ( 0.01) |
| 76.54% ( 0.01) | 23.46% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 42.53% ( 0.01) | 57.47% ( -0.01) |
| 58.89% ( -0.03) | 41.11% ( 0.03) |
