Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jorge Wilstermann win with a probability of 37.63%. A win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 35.92% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jorge Wilstermann win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.26%) and 2-0 (6.47%). The likeliest Sao Paulo win was 0-1 (9.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.57%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood.
