SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Dundalk | 25 | 19 | 46 |
| 3 | Derry City | 24 | 18 | 44 |
| 4 | St Patrick's Athletic | 24 | 11 | 36 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Shamrock Rovers | 24 | 23 | 52 |
| 2 | Dundalk | 25 | 19 | 46 |
| 3 | Derry City | 24 | 18 | 44 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derry City win with a probability of 44.03%. A win for Shamrock Rovers had a probability of 29.11% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derry City win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.81%) and 2-0 (8.21%). The likeliest Shamrock Rovers win was 0-1 (9.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.71%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Derry City | Draw | Shamrock Rovers |
44.03% ( 0.48) | 26.85% ( 0.06) | 29.11% ( -0.54) |
| Both teams to score 49.37% ( -0.47) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.58% ( -0.46) | 55.41% ( 0.46) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.39% ( -0.38) | 76.61% ( 0.38) |
| Derry City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.99% ( 0.03) | 25% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.33% ( 0.05) | 59.66% ( -0.05) |
| Shamrock Rovers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.83% ( -0.65) | 34.17% ( 0.65) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.14% ( -0.71) | 70.86% ( 0.7) |
| Score Analysis |
| Derry City | Draw | Shamrock Rovers |
| 1-0 @ 11.84% ( 0.22) 2-1 @ 8.81% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 8.21% ( 0.16)3-1 @ 4.07% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.79% ( 0.08)3-2 @ 2.19% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 1.41% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.31% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.39% Total : 44.03% | 1-1 @ 12.71% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 8.54% ( 0.15)2-2 @ 4.73% ( -0.08)Other @ 0.86% Total : 26.85% | 0-1 @ 9.18% ( 0) 1-2 @ 6.83% ( -0.11)0-2 @ 4.93% ( -0.09)1-3 @ 2.44% ( -0.09)0-3 @ 1.76% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 1.69% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.28% Total : 29.11% |
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