America's recent form is a big worry despite their thrashing of Colo Colo in the last round.
Mancini will hope that bringing in some of their fringe players could pay off again, but if Bragantino are on their game, they should take a first leg lead back to Sao Paulo.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a America Mineiro win with a probability of 38.42%. A win for Bragantino had a probability of 36.75% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an America Mineiro win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.15%) and 2-0 (5.96%). The likeliest Bragantino win was 1-2 (8.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.61%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood.
-0.02) 
0.04) 
