SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 40.99%. A win for AZ Alkmaar had a probability of 34.11% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.64%) and 2-0 (6.5%). The likeliest AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 (7.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Aston Villa in this match.
| Result | ||
| Aston Villa | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
40.99% ( -0.01) | 24.9% ( 0) | 34.11% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 57.69% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.43% ( -0.01) | 45.57% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.11% ( -0.01) | 67.89% ( 0.01) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.82% ( -0.01) | 22.18% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.41% ( -0.02) | 55.59% ( 0.02) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.14% ( 0) | 25.86% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.17% ( 0) | 60.83% |
| Score Analysis |
| Aston Villa | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 2-1 @ 8.8% ( -0) 1-0 @ 8.64% ( 0)2-0 @ 6.5% ( -0)3-1 @ 4.42% ( -0)3-0 @ 3.26% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.99% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.66% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.23% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.12% ( -0)Other @ 2.38% Total : 40.99% | 1-1 @ 11.68% 2-2 @ 5.95% ( -0)0-0 @ 5.74% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.35% ( -0)Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.9% | 1-2 @ 7.9% ( 0) 0-1 @ 7.76% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 5.25% ( 0)1-3 @ 3.56% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.68% 0-3 @ 2.37% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.21% ( 0)2-4 @ 0.91% Other @ 2.48% Total : 34.11% |
ISOCountry Code:
Matched Country Groups:
