SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 65.31%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for Heracles had a probability of 15.78%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.58%) and 1-0 (8.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.66%), while for a Heracles win it was 1-2 (4.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Heracles |
65.31% ( -0.71) | 18.9% ( 0.23) | 15.78% ( 0.48) |
| Both teams to score 57.36% ( 0.35) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.75% ( -0.09) | 36.24% ( 0.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.63% ( -0.1) | 58.36% ( 0.09) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.59% ( -0.21) | 10.41% ( 0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 66.05% ( -0.45) | 33.95% ( 0.45) |
| Heracles Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.02% ( 0.54) | 35.98% ( -0.54) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.24% ( 0.54) | 72.76% ( -0.55) |
| Score Analysis |
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Heracles |
| 2-1 @ 9.8% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 9.58% ( -0.12)1-0 @ 8.47% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 7.39% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 7.23% ( -0.15)4-1 @ 4.18% ( -0.06)4-0 @ 4.09% ( -0.12)3-2 @ 3.78% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 2.14% 5-1 @ 1.89% ( -0.05)5-0 @ 1.85% ( -0.07)5-2 @ 0.97% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.94% Total : 65.31% | 1-1 @ 8.66% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 5.01% ( 0.08)0-0 @ 3.74% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.29% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.2% Total : 18.9% | 1-2 @ 4.43% ( 0.11) 0-1 @ 3.83% ( 0.07)0-2 @ 1.96% ( 0.07)2-3 @ 1.71% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 1.51% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.36% Total : 15.78% |
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