SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 39.33%. A win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 33.14% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.25%) and 0-2 (7.23%). The likeliest Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 (10.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Penarol |
33.14% ( -1.18) | 27.53% ( 0.28) | 39.33% ( 0.9) |
| Both teams to score 48.9% ( -1.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.27% ( -1.26) | 56.73% ( 1.26) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.32% ( -1.02) | 77.68% ( 1.02) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.04% ( -1.42) | 31.96% ( 1.42) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.58% ( -1.65) | 68.42% ( 1.65) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.88% ( -0.09) | 28.12% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.2% ( -0.11) | 63.8% ( 0.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Penarol |
| 1-0 @ 10.25% ( 0.1) 2-1 @ 7.42% ( -0.24)2-0 @ 5.85% ( -0.18)3-1 @ 2.82% ( -0.21)3-0 @ 2.22% ( -0.16)3-2 @ 1.79% ( -0.14)Other @ 2.79% Total : 33.14% | 1-1 @ 13% ( 0.09) 0-0 @ 8.99% ( 0.43)2-2 @ 4.71% ( -0.17)Other @ 0.83% Total : 27.52% | 0-1 @ 11.4% ( 0.51) 1-2 @ 8.25% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 7.23% ( 0.31)1-3 @ 3.49% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 3.06% ( 0.12)2-3 @ 1.99% ( -0.07)1-4 @ 1.11% ( -0)0-4 @ 0.97% ( 0.04)Other @ 1.83% Total : 39.33% |
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