SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 48.57%. A win for FC Koln had a probability of 29.44% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.36%) and 0-2 (6.17%). The likeliest FC Koln win was 2-1 (6.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.39%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
| Result | ||
| FC Koln | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
| 29.44% | 21.98% ( 0) | 48.57% ( -0) |
| Both teams to score 66.1% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.4% ( -0.02) | 33.6% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.59% ( -0.02) | 55.41% ( 0.02) |
| FC Koln Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.17% ( -0.01) | 22.83% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.45% ( -0.02) | 56.55% ( 0.02) |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.66% ( -0.01) | 14.34% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.81% ( -0.02) | 42.19% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Koln | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2-1 @ 6.94% ( 0) 1-0 @ 4.84% ( 0)2-0 @ 3.57% ( 0)3-1 @ 3.42% ( -0)3-2 @ 3.32% ( -0)3-0 @ 1.76% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.26% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.23% ( -0)Other @ 3.13% Total : 29.44% | 1-1 @ 9.39% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.74% ( -0)0-0 @ 3.27% ( 0)3-3 @ 2.15% ( -0)Other @ 0.43% Total : 21.98% | 1-2 @ 9.12% ( 0) 0-1 @ 6.36% ( 0)0-2 @ 6.17% ( 0)1-3 @ 5.9% ( -0)2-3 @ 4.36% ( -0)0-3 @ 4% ( 0)1-4 @ 2.87% ( -0)2-4 @ 2.12% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.94% 1-5 @ 1.11% ( -0)3-4 @ 1.04% ( -0)Other @ 3.58% Total : 48.57% |
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