SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 43.4%. A win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 28.96% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.57%) and 2-0 (8.35%). The likeliest Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 (9.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
43.4% ( -0.12) | 27.63% | 28.96% ( 0.11) |
| Both teams to score 47.06% ( 0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.68% ( 0.04) | 58.32% ( -0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.06% ( 0.03) | 78.94% ( -0.03) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.35% ( -0.04) | 26.65% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.11% ( -0.06) | 61.89% ( 0.05) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.16% ( 0.11) | 35.83% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.39% ( 0.11) | 72.61% ( -0.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
| 1-0 @ 12.62% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 8.57% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 8.35% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 3.78% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 3.68% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.94% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.25% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.22% ( -0.01)Other @ 2% Total : 43.4% | 1-1 @ 12.96% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 9.55% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 4.4% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.72% Total : 27.63% | 0-1 @ 9.8% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 6.65% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 5.03% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 2.28% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.72% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.5% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.98% Total : 28.96% |
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