SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 41.64%. A win for Penarol had a probability of 30.04% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.25%) and 0-2 (8.1%). The likeliest Penarol win was 1-0 (10.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.16%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-0 draw for this match.
| Result | ||
| Penarol | Draw | Flamengo |
30.04% ( -0.15) | 28.32% ( 0.03) | 41.64% ( 0.12) |
| Both teams to score 45.65% ( -0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.65% ( -0.14) | 60.35% ( 0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.49% ( -0.1) | 80.5% ( 0.1) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.9% ( -0.19) | 36.1% ( 0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.12% ( -0.19) | 72.88% ( 0.19) |
| Flamengo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.44% ( 0) | 28.56% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.64% ( 0) | 64.35% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Penarol | Draw | Flamengo |
| 1-0 @ 10.5% 2-1 @ 6.71% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 5.35% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 2.28% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 1.82% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.43% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.95% Total : 30.03% | 1-1 @ 13.16% 0-0 @ 10.31% ( 0.06)2-2 @ 4.2% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.65% Total : 28.32% | 0-1 @ 12.92% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 8.25% ( 0)0-2 @ 8.1% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 3.45% ( 0)0-3 @ 3.38% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.76% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.08% 0-4 @ 1.06% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.65% Total : 41.64% |
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